Archive

The Long End Gets Its Invoice

The Bid That Stops at the Belly

Risk-off rallied everything this morning — except the one place it was supposed to. The long end won't move, and that's the whole story.

The First Naked Print

June 22, 2026

What Warsh Killed, and What the Market Built in Its Place

The first Warsh press conference is over. The thesis held. Now the regime begins.

The Book Is Long the Pivot Into Warsh's First

Everyone's positioned for the gift. That's what makes a hawkish first print the pain trade.

Oil Is Doing Warsh's Job for Him

Crude cracks on the Iran deal — a disinflationary gift the week he takes the chair. Treasuries sit frozen, the 20-year reopens this afternoon, and the only thing moving is the CCC tail.

Warsh on Deck, the 20-Year on the Eve

Alts: "Pressure Gauge 6.0: One Clock, One Binary" · "Warsh's First: What the Tape Believes Going In"

Term Premium Comes Home

Strip the guidance, and the long end re-prices what it was never allowed to.

The 2-Year Is Through the Funds Rate

Front-led selloff, peace-trade oil fade, and why the curve window matters