Archive

Dispatch Morning Brief

Sunday's ladder said 5.50 this week. Thirties printed 5.499 this morning, a day after the Treasury's buyback failed to hold the level. Xi came and went with a truce and no details. The long end goes into the weekend at a 2004 high, and the average Treasury yields five for the first time since 2007.

Dispatch Morning Brief

Treasury buys up to $6bn of the long end this afternoon, the morning every tenor from five years out carries a 5-handle and thirties print a 2004 high. Signal, not size. The refunding is still the cap event.

Dispatch Morning Brief

Dispatch Morning Brief

Crude gave back the war premium in two sessions, the day Trump defends the war at the UN. The oil leg of the input-cost war just got weaker. Watch what the Fed does without it.

Dispatch Sunday Set-up

Dispatch Morning Brief

The BOJ hiked to 1.25 and the yen fell anyway. The relief bid in Treasuries gave it all back into the weekend.

October, Not December

The market moved the next hike up a meeting, then bought bonds anyway. Twos 68 over funds, the BOE stops selling gilts, and Gundlach's 6.5 on the long end.

One Hundred Basis Points Apart

The market is priced for three hikes. The Fed's own dots say cuts. Today at 2:00 the gap closes.

The Hike Nobody Asked For

Tens through 5% for the first time since 2007. The President wants a cut. The tape has priced a hike.