THE TAPE. Count the headlines: the White House moving on Cook, Schmid at Jackson Hole allowing that policy "might be accommodative on the short end," the buyback expansion two weeks from its first ops. Now count the basis points: 2Y +1, 10Y +2, 30Y +1. Loudest week of August, quietest tape. The long end is elevated — 30Y at 5.19 — but it is contained, holding under the highs while it absorbs everything thrown at it.
THE CURVE. 2s10s +44. 5s30s +80. 2s30s +96 — to the basis point where July closed. The steepener view is marked flat on the month: not better, not worse, unresolved into September 10. One kink earns the ink: 20s trade through 30s, 5.20 against 5.19. When the belly of the long end out-yields the bond, that isn't the economy talking. That's the calendar deciding where the pressure sits.
CREDIT — THE SPLIT. IG at 81, still asleep. Broad HY at 270 — tighter this month. And CCC at 1,039 — wider again, +26 since July closed at 1,013. The countdown extended. Read those together: the index is being carried by its quality, and the bottom decile is repricing what these funding costs do to the leveraged tail. B at 284 puts CCC-over-B near 755. That's not a spread. That's a sorting.
SUPPLY — THE AI LEG. Nvidia guides AI-fueled demand up 70 percent next year. Equity desks read growth. This desk reads capex, and capex reads issuance: the buildout keeps funding itself in the long end, at 6-handles in 15-year-plus high grade. The calendar set this price back in June — the night SpaceX printed $25 billion out to 2056 (https://dispatch.thebondbro.com/p/the-long-end-gets-its-invoice) — and it's still setting it in August. Same thesis. More co-signers.
PRODUCTS, BRIEFLY. WTI 82 and off the boil, but heating oil has doubled in a year and holds the crack story. That's refined-product inflation the disinflation narrative hasn't digested.
THE WATCH. PCE tomorrow. Buyback ops ramp September 10. Front end believes the slowdown, long end believes the calendar, and Treasury believes the long end needs help. Nine trading days until somebody's model gets graded.
Contained is not the same as calm. The tape is holding its breath, not changing its mind.
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Sources: Koyfin (curve, credit OAS, commodities, FX), Aug 27 2026 pre-open. CDS gradient marks as of Jul 10 board.
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