Brent printed through $100 overnight — up 7% on the session, up 37% on the month — and the front end of the Treasury curve bought it. The 2Y sits at 4.34, down a basis point. The 1Y is down two. That makes this the first session of the entire conflict where crude gapped higher and the front end rallied into it.
That is the regime signal. Below $90, oil was an inflation question, and every barrel higher pulled hike odds forward. At $100, the market flipped the sign: crude is now a tax. Triple-digit Brent with gasoline up roughly 100% year-to-date does the Fed's tightening for it — demand destruction, not pass-through, is the front end's base case. With forward guidance retired, nobody waited for a speech to reprice it.
The long end did not get the memo, and that is the point. The 30Y sat at 5.16, unchanged, into a bid everywhere else on the curve. Pass-through risk — the version where $100 crude leaks into core and re-anchors expectations — is not dead; it has been moved down the curve. 5s30s widened on the day. The gradient steepens: the front end prices the growth tax, the long end keeps charging for the inflation risk. Yesterday's Offset at $90 becomes today's Tax at $100 — same barrel, different incidence.
Credit shrugged again: IG at 78, high yield at 268. The one thing that did not shrug: munis. MUB fell 0.6% on a day the Treasury complex was flat-to-better — a three-sigma move on the Koyfin dashboard, with short munis screening worse. Ratios are cheapening into supply. If you run muni SMAs, today's tape is the entry discussion, not the exit one.
The Board below. Full PDF -> https://tinyurl.com/Dispatch07242026
Data: Koyfin, July 24, 2026 ~7:47am ET. CDS levels reference ICE Clear Credit official settlement prices, July 9, 2026 close, as published in this letter July 10. Headline items as carried in press reports, July 23–24, 2026.
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