Overnight Risk-off tone — AI-hardware reset selling tech, futures soft. Iranian strikes on Gulf shipping test the cease-fire, threaten energy flows. Oil bid back: Brent $72 / WTI $68.5, partial reversal of last week's ~28% collapse. Taiwan CPI hot on energy. Gold $4,159.
Rates higher, near-parallel: +2.5–2.8bp across. 2Y 4.15, 5Y 4.24, 10Y 4.50, 30Y 5.01. 2s10s +35bp, 2s30s +86bp. Policy 3.75%. Credit firm: IG 5.20% / 75bp OAS (A 63, BBB 94), HY 6.97% / 274bp (BB 164, B 296). No stress bleed from the AI wobble — yet.
The Read Risk-off that doesn't rally duration is the tell. Tech selling and renewed Gulf energy risk should bid the long end — instead yields are higher, near-parallel, and the 30Y is capped at 5.01. Oil-inflation impulse plus supply outweigh the safety bid. Term premium again: the long end won't rally on a risk event because the market won't underwrite the inflation-and-issuance backdrop. Own the steepener; a risk-off that fails to bull-flatten confirms the driver.
The 12-month curve says the same — belly cheapened most (+24 to +31bp), front anchored (1Y −15bp) pricing eventual easing, long end up least but won't rally. The Warsh-era twist.
What Matters Today Gulf/oil headlines — each escalation caps the long end; watch Brent through $73. AI-hardware contagion — if the tech reset bleeds to credit, IG/HY OAS widen first; firm this morning. Front-end anchor — 1Y 3.94 vs 2Y 4.15; hawkish Fedspeak on sticky core pressures 2s.
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Disclosure: Educational/informational only; not investment, tax, or legal advice, nor an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security. Levels as observed and subject to change. The Pressure Gauge is a proprietary qualitative framework, not a model output. Any specific issuer or CUSIP is used to illustrate structure, not as a recommendation. TEY assumes a 40% marginal rate; tax treatment is entity-specific — consult your own advisor. Past performance and historical spread relationships do not guarantee future results.