THE DISPATCH — MORNING BRIEF | Thursday, July 9, 2026
Two things hit the tape inside 24 hours: the June minutes and a Hormuz headline. Together they ran a live experiment on the long end — and it failed the old playbook.
The minutes first. Warsh's first meeting held unanimously at 3.5–3.75%, but a faction argued for hikes, with the committee flagging upside risks to price stability as elevated while employment downside risk has moderated. The balance of risks has flipped — the 2026 conversation is no longer whether slowing growth forces cuts, it's whether policy eases before inflation is done. And buried in the discussion: participants flagged continued AI-related investment as supportive of both growth and inflation. The capex-as-inflation channel is now in the Fed's own minutes.
Then the shock. Crude gapped on the Hormuz shipping slowdown — WTI +4.4% to ~$73.50, Brent +5.2% — but products tell the real story: heating oil +10.8% on the day, gasoline +5.1% and now +81% YTD. That's a tanker-traffic squeeze, not a barrel shortage. The crack is doing the panicking.
Here's the test: war headline, 5% energy spike, textbook flight-to-quality setup — and Treasuries fell across the curve. TLT off 0.2%, long IG down over 1%, front end flat, yen at 162.5 doing nothing. Gold +0.6% to ~$4,100 was the only haven that showed up. With headline CPI at 4.2% against a 2.9% core, an energy shock isn't a duration bid anymore — it's a term-premium event.
Credit didn't blink: IG OAS 76bp, BBB 94, HY 267. Index calm, curve absorbing everything. Same mechanism as the supply story, different catalyst.
Desk read: whether Warsh hikes or holds is a front-end debate. The long end already voted — it trades distrust, not policy. Steepener stays on.
"The Bond Bro Dispatch is published by Positive Carry LLC. All content is general market commentary provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Nothing herein is tailored to the circumstances of any recipient. Data are drawn from sources believed reliable; accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. [email protected] · © 2026 Positive Carry LLC. All rights reserved."